How to Dig for the Truth – Part 3

How to Dig for the Truth – Part 3

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More about the coronavirus numbers.

The “number of deaths” published by websites such as [1] and [2] truly is the “number of people who died and have previously been tested positive for coronavirus.” As we know from Part 2, having been tested positive for coronavirus does not necessarily mean to be infected with the coronavirus simply because tests have an error rate.

Furthermore, without an obduction, one cannot say what the actual cause of death was. All publications that I checked so far suggest that no obductions are performed. In other words, it is not know whether a person who enters the statistics actually has died from the virus.

On Mar 25 a scientific article was published ([3]). The following table is from this publication. (Data from Italy as of March 17, 2020, from China as of February 11, 2020.)

It is stated that these numbers are for “death of coronavirus-infected patients,” which truly is “death of people who previously were tested positive.”

In Italy, 87.9% of deaths are people aged 70+. In China, 81% of deaths are people aged 60+. No information is given about pre-existing illnesses.

On Mar 27, [2] published the following headline: “919 deaths within 24 hours in Italy.” I clicked the headline and the text said: “… 80% of deaths were people aged 70+. 50% had at least three pre-existing illnesses. It was not tested whether people died with or from Covid-19.”

Clearly, elderly people and people with pre-existing illnesses are more vulnerable and, thus, more likely to die. Not just viruses, but any form of stress can be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Imagine a person with a serious heart condition goes for a jog. It is hot outside, the strain is too much, the person collapses and dies. Has this person died from jogging, from the heat, or from a serious heart condition?

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Corona is known for its flu-like symptoms. Hence, it makes sense to compare it to influenza. We look at the death toll of influenza:

In [4] we find the following quote from a scientific study (which is referenced therein): “According to the World Health Organization, every winter, tens of millions of people get the flu. Most are only ill and out of work for a week, yet the elderly are at a higher risk of death from the illness. We know the worldwide death toll exceeds a few hundred thousand people a year. … Even healthy people can be affected, and serious problems from influenza can happen at any age.”

We check a second source for confirmation.

According to a scientific study from 2019 ([5]), an average of 389,000 respiratory deaths were associated with influenza globally each year during the study period (2002-2011). Of these, 67% were among people 65 years or older.

It seems save to say that approximately 400,000 people die from influenza worldwide every year.

This makes an average of 83,333 influenza deaths worldwide in 2.5 months. On Apr 8, [1] reported about 84,000 deaths of people who were tested positive for corona. The statistics started Jan 22, which makes 2.5 months, which is almost precisely the expected 2.5-months death toll of influenza.

One could argue that without the shutdown, more people would have died. Maybe yes, maybe no. We don’t know.

On the other hand, since no obductions are performed, the number of actual coronavirus deaths likely is smaller than 84,000.

The truth is beyond what we see …

The internet is full of information awaiting to be discovered, connected, and compared. If you want to get closer to the truth about the coronavirus crisis or any other topic in the outside world, start digging in the internet.

If you want to get closer to your personal truth, start digging in yourself.

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To be continued …

References:

[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[2] https://www.orf.at/

[3] G Onder etal (2020): Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Relation to COVID-19 in Italy.
     https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza

[5] J Paget etal (2019): Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/